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Funded Project |
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Funding Program:
Regional IPM Competitive Grants - Northeastern |
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Project Title:
Decision Support System for Tomato and Potato Late Blight |
Project Directors (PDs):
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Lead State: NY Lead Organization: Cornell University |
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Cooperating State(s):
Florida |
| Research Funding: $88,392 |
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Start Date: Jun-15-2010 End Date: Jun-14-2012 |
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Pests Involved: late blight, fungus, fungi |
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Site/Commodity: tomatoes, potatoes |
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Summary:
The research is required to provide data to achieve the overall goal, which is: to enable fungicides to be used more efficiently in late blight management. Late blight is a major constraint in both potato production and in tomato production, so experiments will occur in both agro-ecosystems. The delivery mechanism for information is a web-based interactive Decision Support System (DSS) that provides information to growers in real-time. Experiments to expand and improve the DSS are proposed. Evaluations of the final DSS will be conducted in research plots on research farms and in demonstration plots on growers' farms. The improvements to the DSS include: i) expansion of the system to include tomato late blight as well as potato late blight; ii) expansion of the system to include effective fungicides of low environmental impact; iii) identification of the conditions calling for the "first" fungicide application in tomatoes; and iv) development of active alerts to be sent to users when "high risk" conditions occur.
Objectives: 1. Expand a web-based Decision Support System (DSS) for potato late blight management to also include tomato late blight. 2. Expand the DSS to include the effects of the most effective and environmentally benign fungicides currently available for suppression of potato late blight and tomato late blight. 3. Develop a conceptual model to predict the first occurrence in late blight in south Florida tomato production. 4. Develop an active function in the DSS to alert growers and pest management specialists to "high risk conditions". 5. Evaluate the potential of the expanded DSS to aid growers to reduce the environmental impact of their production practices. Proposal USDA CRIS data |
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Interim Report: Aug-22-2011 |
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Outcomes We have made excellent progress on each of the five major objectives in the first year of the project. 1. Include tomato late blight in the DSS. We have assumed that tomatoes are all "susceptible" and have applied one of the disease forecasts in the DSS to schedule fungicides. As proposed, these experiments were initiated in the summer 2011, so the experiments are in process. 2. Include additional fungicides into the DSS. Field trials of fungicides were conducted in the first growing season of the project in NY (summer 2010) and FL (winter 2010/2011). In the summer 2011, we are gathering data necessary to include additional fungicides into the DSS. These experiments are in process. 3. Develop the "first fungicide application" model for Florida tomatoes. These experiments are in process. We are comparing historical weather data with the first report of late blight to determine weather factors most strongly associated with the first late blight occurrence. These experiments and comparisons are in process. 4. Incorporate "active alerts" into the DSS. We have developed an algorithm that reflects the factors contributing to a successful inoculation and have added the result to the DSS as an "infection alert". This alert takes into account the following crucial variables: a) whether or not late blight has been reported within 50 miles of the user; b) the degree to which weather at the source of the late blight has had weather favorable to sporulation; c) whether or not weather at the source of late blight favors dispersal of sporangia; d) whether or not wind direction will transport sporangia to the users location; e) survival of sporangia during transit; f) the probability that sporangia will initiate infection at the users location (using weather at that location). This algorithm is currently being evaluated. Growers can opt for this alert and receive text or email messages when such conditions are met. During the summer 2011, such conditions have rarely been met in NY. 5. Evaluate the DSS under "stress test" conditions (research farm) and "grower" conditions. Two types of experiments were conducted in NY in 2010; one type was a stress test in which late blight was known to be in the area, and the other was use of the DSS by growers. In the stress test, two cultivars (susceptible and moderately resistant) and three fungicide treatments (i. normal grower practice of weekly sprays, ii. fungicides applied according to the DSS and iii. no fungicide) were used for a total of six treatments. The stress test occurred within 0.5 mile of a known source of late blight. When no fungicide was used, late blight destroyed 60% of the foliage of the susceptible cultivar and 10% of the foliage of the moderately resistant cultivar. The grower practice resulted in 8 fungicide sprays on both cultivars and there was no late blight in these crops. The DSS resulted in 6 sprays in the susceptible cultivar and 5 sprays in the moderately susceptible cultivar; there was no late blight in any of these crops. Thus, the experiment illustrated the benefits of using the DSS there was no reduction in disease control, but the system resulted in a savings of fungicide use by 25-40%. In the grower evaluations, there was no "control" treatment (unsprayed crops), so we cannot make any quantitative assessments. In no case was any of the grower fields at risk due to neighboring late blight in 2010. We do know that these growers consulted the system regularly and at least one grower time fungicide applications according to the system. There was no report of late blight in any of these demonstration plots a very successful result. Further evaluation tests are in process in the 2011 growing season. The project is proceeding according to schedule. Improvements to the DSS have been made available to users at the beginning of the season in 2011. One happy result is that one grower is using the simulation model on the DSS to guide his fungicide schedule. He projected 6 days into the future and simulated fungicide residues on the crop. From this simulation analysis he concluded he could spray at half the full rate of fungicide and be "safe" until his next scheduled aerial application. Thus, he saved a half spray. A major benefit from this project is that it served as the focal point for a $9,000,000 AFRI proposal in which both Pam Roberts and Bill Fry are participants. Because the DSS can integrate the effects of weather, fungicide, host resistance and pathogen aggressiveness, it serves as the hub into which participants feed information. The AFRI grant involves 26 participants from the eastern USA, but also from the Midwest, West and even from the United Kingdom. In the 2011 growing season, persons from the UK have investigated its utility. In the USA, it is now in use in NY, Maine, and Florida. |
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Impacts The major impact of the project is to enhance the visibility of IPM in potato and tomato production. Grower adoption is still limited, but the enthusiasm of several growers is very clear and they have influenced others to test the system. Some users have adopted it for their production systems. The DSS is a great educational tool for growers, fieldmen and extension staff. It highlights the importance of late blight management and epidemiology. The highly specific weather forecasts are important in making decisions about fungicide spraying, and these decisions are now being made much more knowledgeably. We expect that knowledge will begin to replace fungicide as insurance in the management of late blight. The logic model that we created for the project in the proposal continues to be appropriate and we are following it. It is reproduced here: ----------------------------------------------------- Inputs: - Money - People (meteorologists, technical staff, research staff, farm staff, programmers and extension staff). ¯ Audience (potato and tomato growers) Activities: - use and evaluation of the DSS interface - thinking about integrated disease management - presentations at grower meetings - observation of plots (fields) treated according to the DSS and standard grower practice ¯ Short term impact: - decreased environmental impact of fungicides in the target production areas - decreased use of fungicide compared to standard grower practice - increased awareness by growers and field managers of environmental impacts of fungicides - increased awareness by growers and field managers of impacts of host resistance - increased awareness by growers and field managers of impacts of future weather - increased awareness and interest in the DSS by growers and field managers. ------------------------------------------ Here are the requested impact statements: 1. Safeguarding human health and the environment New IPM practices that are being adopted are: * including weather forecasts into a real-time disease forecast potentially on >100,000 acres * reducing risk due to fungicide by reducing the amount fungicide used in potato/tomato production. (The degree to which this risk is reduced depends on the degree of adoption, and adoption is increasing.) 2. Economic benefits * We have illustrated that savings of 25-40% on fungicide costs are possible in some years. Significant adoption could therefore realize savings in the order of many $100,000s. * As result of the AFRI project, there are several IPM personnel working in NY alone. Some private consultants are also using the DSS. * Presently, we are still in the initial phase of introducing the DSS, and we depend on early adopter growers. Currently we know of six consistent users, and these folks have about 8-10% of the potato acreage in NY. As nearly as we can tell, they are all pleased with the system. 3. Implementation of IPM The DSS illustrates the following IPM strategies and enables growers to implement them: * Utilization of host resistance * Weather-based disease forecasting * Pathogen-detection management These are illustrated via the DSS, and their roles have been illustrated in field plot experiments. |
| Report Appendices |
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Final Report: |
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Outcomes Use of the DSS is expected to achieve significant efficiencies in the use of fungicide to suppress late blight on potatoes and tomatoes. During the period of November 2011 May 2012, the DSS was expanded to include some of the most effective and popular fungicides in addition to those involving chlorothalonil. This was accomplished by adjusting the thresholds in the late blight forecast, Simcast. Both Fry and Roberts have conducted fungicide efficacy experiments to support the expansion of the DSS. Individual data are published separately. An older version of the DSS has been used in evaluation experiments. We used Simcast (one of the late blight disease forecasts in the DSS) to guide fungicide applications in research plots. There were experiments in the summer of 2010 and the summer of 2011. In 2010 the experiment involved Katahdin as the susceptible variety and Kennebec as the moderately resistant variety. Late blight was known to be present about 0.5 miles away. Chlorothalonil was the fungicide. Treatments consisted of i) weekly applications, ii) applications according to the DSS, or iii) no fungicide. At the end of the season there was essentially no late blight in any plot receiving fungicide, but different treatments had received different amounts of fungicide. Plots sprayed weekly had received 8 applications. Katahdin plots sprayed according to the DSS had received 6 applications, and Kennebec plots sprayed according to the DSS had received 5 applications. Late blight was certainly a threat because by the end of the season the untreated Kathahdin plots were severely affected by late blight (60% defoliated), and the untreated Kennebec plots were about 10% defoliated. Use of Simcast in the DSS enabled the savings of three fungicide applications for Kennebec and two fungicide applications for Katahdin. These savings were made possible by taking into account the effect of weather and host resistance. In 2011, the experiment involved Kennebec as the resistant cultivar and Yukon Gold as the susceptible cultivar. The plots were inoculated from an unknown source with a mixture of isolates of P. infestans. Again the DSS permitted effective disease suppression with less fungicide needed on the resistant cultivar than on the susceptible cultivar. |
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Impacts The utility of the DSS has been described to diverse audiences. These include: a meeting of extension personnel associated with a large late blight project at their annual meeting in December 2011; meetings in winter and spring 2012, grower twilight meetings, and local extension personnel. Some growers are evaluating the system using diverse components. Their comments are useful to make further improvements. One extension specialist has 10 weather stations that she is monitoring and growers in other states are evaluating the system. The economic value of the savings achievable via the DSS can be considerable. A reduction in the number of fungicide applications of 10-20% is quite possible ($20-$40/a). These savings can be applied throughout the country. |
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